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English captions are included. Read the transcript or download the three-page guide.

Three kinds of evidence

An index describes movement in a defined market. A quotation defines an offer, including the specification, quantity, delivery terms and validity. The contract determines whether, when and how a selling price may change. None replaces the others.

Match before comparing

Food evidence must reflect the product, grade or species, origin, packaging, currency and unit. Fuel evidence must match the grade and purchasing market. Freight requires comparable equipment, routes and included charges. Insurance requires a quotation for the actual goods, journey and cover.

Make the comparison reproducible

Save the exact series, source, reference period, publication date, revisions, quotation validity and limitations. Assign a responsible reviewer. Avoid adding fuel, insurance or handling charges that are already included elsewhere.

A clearly hypothetical example

Imagine 100 cost units: 50 commodity and 50 other costs. If the commodity cost actually rises by 8% and everything else stays unchanged, the total becomes 104, a 4% increase. An index movement does not itself prove that pass-through, and this illustration does not create a contractual price-adjustment entitlement.

Keep the contract scenario conditional

The series uses an illustrative 3+1+1 structure, approximately one year of preparation and mobilisation, three initial fixed-price years and a first possible review in year four. These are not universal UN rules. Confirm whether mobilisation occurs before or within the initial term; do not count it twice. Extensions and price increases are not guaranteed.

The four-part sequence

  1. Before the bid: price the whole commitment.
  2. Choosing the right benchmark — this episode.
  3. Fixed price, changing costs: what should you monitor?.
  4. Negotiating price changes with evidence — planned.

Apply the lesson to your operation

Which part of your cost comparison is least supported by comparable evidence? Share general questions without confidential prices or contract records. For a tailored cost-exposure and operational-readiness review, contact JPV NEXA.

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Sources and limitations

Methodology checked 11 October 2026. Independent educational commentary; no institutional or supplier affiliation or endorsement. Actual solicitation, contract and insurance terms govern. No live supplier prices or client-specific models are disclosed.

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